Event odds move first. Prices follow.
When an asset's price is tightly correlated with an event's outcome odds, a sharp change in those odds can signal where the price is likely to go before it fully moves. Wolfpack measures these correlations, watches high-quality odds from prediction markets, and flags the moment the odds jump and the correlated asset hasn't yet followed.
That gap gives members an edge: a chance to act before the market moves.
Methodology
Rolling correlation
Correlation is Pearson's r between an event's daily change in outcome odds and an asset's daily return, over the last 30 days. It is recomputed every day, so the window rolls forward. The window ends before the latest odds move, so a move is never part of its own correlation.
r near 1 means the asset has tended to rise on days the odds rose. r near −1 means it has tended to fall. An asset is tracked against an event only when the absolute r is at least 0.50.
A sharp odds move
Odds are the outcome probability on Kalshi or Polymarket, shown as a percent. A sharp move is a change of at least 5 percentage points (pts) within 60 minutes. The sharp move is the context for an alert. It is not an alert by itself.
Expected move and the gap
Beta is the least-squares slope of the asset's daily return on the daily odds change, over the same window, in percent per point. Expected move = beta × the odds change. Actual move is the asset's return since the odds move began.
Gap = expected − actual: the part of the expected move that has not printed yet. It carries the sign of the expected move, so a negative gap means the asset has further to fall.
When Assets lagging fires
All three must hold: the odds move is sharp, the absolute r is at least 0.50, and the asset's actual move is under half of its expected move or went the other way.
Worked example
Fed cut at the next meeting · Kalshi
- Odds move
- 44% → 53% · +9 pts · 45m
- Correlation, 30d
- 0.86
- Beta
- 0.199%/pt
- Expected move
- +9 pts × 0.199%/pt = +1.79%
- Actual move
- +0.12%
- Gap
- +1.79% − +0.12% = +1.67%
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) has a 30-day correlation of 0.86 with these odds and a beta of 0.199: each 1-point rise in the odds has lined up with about a 0.199% rise in TLT.
The odds rose 9 pts in 45 minutes, which clears the 5-point line. The expected move is +1.79%. The move that printed is +0.12%. 0.12% is under half of 1.79%, so TLT is lagging. The gap is +1.67%.