Kalshi · Macro

Fed cut at the next meeting

Latest odds move: 44% → 53% +9 pts in 45m

Each line is scaled to its own range so the shapes can be compared. Daily points, then the latest print.

Correlated assets

Expected move, actual move, and the gap are in the Pro view.

Correlated assets for Fed cut at the next meeting. r and beta use 30 days of daily changes. Moves are since the latest odds move began. Gap is expected minus actual.
Asset	r, 30d	Beta, %/pt	Expected	Actual	Gap
TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF	0.86	0.199	Locked in Free	Locked in Free	Locked in Free
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust	0.72	0.222	Locked in Free	Locked in Free	Locked in Free
QQQInvesco QQQ Trust	0.64	0.247	Locked in Free	Locked in Free	Locked in Free
GLDSPDR Gold Shares	0.57	0.198	Locked in Free	Locked in Free	Locked in Free
USOUnited States Oil Fund	−0.52	−0.301	Locked in Free	Locked in Free	Locked in Free