Polymarket · Politics

Senate stays with the same party

Latest odds move: 39% → 31% −8 pts in 50m

Each line is scaled to its own range so the shapes can be compared. Daily points, then the latest print.

Correlated assets

Expected move, actual move, and the gap are in the Pro view.

Correlated assets for Senate stays with the same party. r and beta use 30 days of daily changes. Moves are since the latest odds move began. Gap is expected minus actual.
Asset	r, 30d	Beta, %/pt	Expected	Actual	Gap
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust	0.66	0.177	Locked in Free	Locked in Free	Locked in Free
QQQInvesco QQQ Trust	0.58	0.194	Locked in Free	Locked in Free	Locked in Free
TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF	−0.53	−0.106	Locked in Free	Locked in Free	Locked in Free
GLDSPDR Gold Shares	0.51	0.154	Locked in Free	Locked in Free	Locked in Free
USOUnited States Oil Fund	0.50	0.251	Locked in Free	Locked in Free	Locked in Free