Polymarket · Macro

Payrolls beat consensus

Latest odds move: 44% → 50% +6 pts in 25m

Each line is scaled to its own range so the shapes can be compared. Daily points, then the latest print.

Correlated assets

Expected move, actual move, and the gap are in the Pro view.

Correlated assets for Payrolls beat consensus. r and beta use 30 days of daily changes. Moves are since the latest odds move began. Gap is expected minus actual.
Asset	r, 30d	Beta, %/pt	Expected	Actual	Gap
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust	0.77	0.182	Locked in Free	Locked in Free	Locked in Free
QQQInvesco QQQ Trust	0.68	0.201	Locked in Free	Locked in Free	Locked in Free
TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF	−0.61	−0.108	Locked in Free	Locked in Free	Locked in Free
IWMiShares Russell 2000 ETF	0.54	0.192	Locked in Free	Locked in Free	Locked in Free